BY ABDULHAMID AL-GAZALI, JUNE 17, 2025 | 04:33 PM

Over the last 48 hours, many households across the North East must have resorted to Robb and hot water as therapies to heal the big man of the house from blow and beating pains. It is a very good thing that it coincided with the World Father’s Day—a day that pretends to ‘celebrate’ a father’s love, ‘cakelessly’ (unfortunately a word you cannot find in any dictionary).

Since children and wives don’t normally contribute money to buy cakes, as cakes are usually made to look expensive when you are not the celebrant, they can at least ‘gather’ money to buy Robb or any form of ointment this time around to heal their fathers who attended the North East APC stakeholders ‘meetsling’ in Gombe. Lie him flat, tummy to the ground, massage and press the back with hot water well well; he was out for your family's political beliefs and ideology: bread and butter. There can’t be a better way to commemorate your father's father’s day.

For us, who are just spectators, we should send the victims, both of physical and mental beating, our sympathies, because when they start reaping the return of their in-beat-ment (investment), they may invite us to feed on the booty. Normally, in politics, these kinds of beatings are your resume and investments. You use it to seek compensation and buy bread. I remember a politician--or something like that because he never held any office--who got a terrible beating a few years ago when he organized a ‘self-beating’ investment for himself. It was supposed to be a light one, that was to be magnified by plasters, bandages and crutches. No, it went awry! The other guy contracted to video the beating for social media posting could not stand it. He fled!

Unfortunately, he didn’t properly put the message clearly to the middlemen that the target to receive the beating was himself. His aim was to use the beating to prove to a certain politician how his support to him mattered, even putting his life in danger. But the people contracted to do the beating, unfortunately, gave him a severe beating without knowing he was their paymaster. It was all blood, a mistake he had never repeated.

Some people would thrive on the back of the beatings they had received, or given, over the weekend in Gombe. All the best, and may the wait not be the normal Tinubu-sque.

The Gombe incident meant one thing. And I don’t really know if anyone in the gathering saw the meaning they were plastering. First of all, the North East ground standing that it has to be Tinubu and Shettima or nothing, is a huge revelation. The region does not like Tinubu. They are only in the party because of their son, which is by the way normal in politics. With him, they can compromise; and support the president even if they are not okay with his performance. The logic here is that, they do not entirely care if their son is allowed to play any relevant role or not, whether he is performing—I mean, allowed to perform—or not. Others may ask why, especially as they could have invested that same support in Atiku and possibly have president for a son. But then, politics is not always logical; and everyone wants an easy win. Tinubu and Shettima looked more promising.

The only concern for me is whether the stake-wrestlers (stakeholders rather) have done a proper reality check. When you make such a redline declaration, it is normally assumed that you are in a position of strength. Does the region have the political muscle to issue such threats? One hopes that it doesn't turn out to be a political harakiri ala Japanese Samurai!

The meeting has misread a number of other things, too. For the president, everything is only about political expediency and realpolitik, not loyalty, emotions, or your organized tantrums. With these being his guide, what the meeting actually did was an acknowledgment of the president’s genuine cul de sac, which is how to win the next election given his dismal performance. By insisting on their son, they also admitted that, that way, the ticket may suffer come 2027 but want the president to risk it anyway on account of emotions. He won't. He is obviously between the devil and the deep blue sea.

The third thing is, what in his kind of thought, we should admit as a genuine concern; but also an open indictment before the eyes of the public. It is the fact that the he wants to win the next election by force of his so-called master strategy rather than on the premise of his performance. It is an admission that he did little to court the genuine love of the people and did everything to further tear them apart. By the way, he never hid that from anyone. He said it is a tough love, but not the kind that allows Seyi to join FEC meetings and travel with national assets. With how he, by action or inaction, rendered the vice president ineffective and clipped his wings, Tinubu also felt that Shettima's political worth in terms of arithmetic is no longer potent. Hence, it was a gamble he wouldn’t want to take on. The handwriting is already on the wall, he doesn't have to state. Tinubu is obviously afraid that if he chooses to go with Shettima, he may lose the game-changing support of the North West and North Central. The last election being a proof, Tinubu argues in his head that the North East is not a reliable stronghold anymore.

The only thing he may not have thought about is the cost of sacrificing Shettima. Besides the potential backlash from the North East, which he probably doesn’t care about and may not matter if it were just about numbers, he may not have yet seen the implications of this on his credentials. He is already widely seen as a self-centered man who can betray anyone if the friendship no longer serves his interest, a case of political pragmatism. True or not, sacrificing Shettima will be read as one more betrayal, and it would only help to confirm the view, as well as stock up the number of those who feel severely betrayed by him.

This would strengthen the narratives of the now scampering opposition. Despite big-men alliances the president is forming in the North West, it doesn't discountenance the fact that a large chunk of the voters would rather make decisions based on their living conditions. For this, the president will have a hard run for his money even in the strategic zones he is now wooing.

With optimized performance of the opposition in the abandoned North East, and an obvious challenge from the average voter North West, North Central and South West, who has been crippled or impoverished by the government, the outcomes of the next election may turn out a huge shocker.